What Will Happen to Brazilian Fertility?

Despite the absence of an official family planning policy, demographic changes in Brazil occurred at an unprecedented pace in the second half of the twentieth century, ushering in an era with total fertility rates near the replacement level. According to the population censuses, the total population in Brazil was 52 million in 1950 and 170 million in 2000. This reflected a mean annual growth rate of about 3 per cent at the beginning of the period, which fell to 1.5 per cent per year in recent years. Brazilian life expectancy at birth increased from 44 to 68 years and the total fertility rate declined from 6.2 to 2.2 in the same period. The changes in life expectancy and in the total fertility rate were pervasive, extending through all social strata, ethnic -race groups and regions, transforming the “average” life course and family structure for Brazilians. Although the demographic components of such changes are well known, there are currently no integrated explanations for their rapid pace.